Tropical Depression Forms in Bay of Campeche

Although the season has been off to a slow start thus far, the Atlantic tropical basin is starting to heat up this weekend. A new tropical system has formed in the Bay of Campeche, but is expected to be short lived.
 
As of 4 p.m. CDT, Tropical Depression #2 was located near 19.3 N and 94.2 W, or about 240 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico. With maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, it remains a weak disorganized system as it moves to the west-northwest at 7 mph. Its minimum pressure was 1011 mb or 29.86 inches of mercury.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan to Tecolutla. This means that tropical storm conditions, or winds greater than 39 mph, are expected in the next 36 hours.
 
Being over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, this system is likely to become better organized and intensify by midday Sunday, becoming the second tropical storm of the season. It would be given the name “Barry” when this occurs.
 
Ultimately, this tropical system will slide ashore in central Mexico, near Cabo Rojo, and about 300 miles south of the U.S./Mexico border. Heavy rainfall on the order of 3 to 6 inches, with locally as much as 10 inches, is expected along the Mexican Gulf coast. This much rain would likely produce flash flooding.
 
Although the U.S. is not at risk from this tropical system, its development serves as a beacon that it is time to prepare for the hurricane season. Create a hurricane evacuation box now, before the storm, with bottled water, extra cell phone chargers, food and clothing. Scope out multiple different evacuation routes, in case your preferred route is blocked or traffic jammed.
 
The Atlantic hurricane season, which officially started on June 1, has been slowly ramping up, as last week saw the short-lived Tropical Storm Andrea in the central Atlantic. This is about in line with climatology, as June typically has only a couple of named storms.