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WeatherBug: Atlantic Hurricane Season Will Be Active

November 3, 2020
By WeatherBug Meteorologist, Chad Merrill
The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be a bit more active than recent years, says a team of WeatherBug meteorologists. A swift transition to a La Nina coupled with warm Atlantic waters are the key factors that will produce more tropical activity.

The WeatherBug forecast calls for 11 to 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin, consisting of the Atlantic Ocean north of the equator, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.  A tropical system is given a name when it develops a closed circulation center and has sustained winds exceeding 39 mph.

Out of the 11 to 15 named storms, five to eight are expected to become hurricanes with sustained winds exceeding 74 mph. Two to four of those hurricanes are expected to become major hurricanes with sustained winds exceeding 110 mph.

These numbers are slightly above the 1981 to 2010 averages of 12 named storms and six hurricanes. The two to four major hurricanes forecast are right in line with seasonal average of three in any given year.
 
This is a bit of an uptick in tropical activity compared to the past two seasons. 2015 saw 11 named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The 2014 hurricane season was also quiet with eight named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes forming.

The key driving forces behind the expected active Atlantic Hurricane season include a rapid transition to a La Nina pattern later this summer and warm Atlantic Ocean water temperatures. La Nina, a below-normal ocean water temperature pattern stretching along equatorial Pacific, tends to occur every 5 to 8 years. “Typically a La Nina results in more Atlantic hurricanes due to weaker vertical wind shear and trade winds,” says WeatherBug Senior Meteorologist, James Aman.

The expected warmer-than-average North Atlantic water temperatures will also likely contribute to more tropical activity. “The Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) is a 50-90-year-long cycle, where surface water temperatures averaged across the North Atlantic Ocean vary from above normal to below normal. Research shows that hurricane activity is more likely during the warm or positive phase of the AMO.  The AMO has been mostly positive since 1995, and is likely to continue positive through the upcoming hurricane season,” says Aman.

The 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season has already become historical. Alex was the first subtropical storm to form in January since an unnamed storm did in 1978. Alex formed in the eastern Atlantic January 13 and became a hurricane the next day. Alex neared Terceira Island in the Azores on January 15 before diminishing later that day.

Image: Hurricane Alex approaches the Azores on January 14, 2016. (National Aeronautics and Space Administration, LANCE/EOSDIS Rapid Response, captured on Aqua satellite)