It was the storm warning heard `round the world: "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."
About 36 hours before Hurricane Ike slammed the Texas Gulf Coast, that was the dire prediction issued by the local National Weather Service office in Houston/Galveston. "Certain death" was picked up by news media, bloggers and Twitter tweets from Texas to Australia.
While it was unusual, a local National Weather Service office had used the phrase at least once before, in a little-noticed warning about Hurricane Katrina: "Persons ... pets ... and livestock exposed to the winds will face certain death if struck."
How do forecasters decide what language to use under storm-fury stress, especially when their words could mean life or death?
At the National Weather Service, forecasters evaluate the storm and then use parts of pre-worded warnings that were crafted at the Tampa weather bureau in the late 1990s and fed into weather bureau software.
Forecasters and observers say the Ike alert almost surely made a difference.
"We will never know how many lives were actually saved, but there`s no doubt in my mind that a very significant number were," said Garth Jowett, a communications professor at the University of Houston who studies the use of propaganda and persuasive language.
The dire warning was based on simple math, said Gene Hafele, forecaster-in-charge of the Houston/Galveston weather office.
"Certain death" applied only to people in the lowest and least-protected zones. Take a predicted 20-foot surge over houses with ceilings at 15 feet above sea level. "They don`t comprehend what a 15-20 foot storm surge is," he said.
But while forecasters were reasonably confident about their weather predictions, they were blindsided by a surge of media coverage.
Mr. Hafele had taken a few hours off when the warning was issued. When he returned around midnight, the media calls and second-guessing included questions about whether the "certain death" line had been overblown.
Mr. Hafele went over to the senior forecaster who had made the call.
"I told him, `I don`t know if I would have done it that way, but I thought it was appropriate,` " he said.
He suggested changing one word for the warning issued early Saturday morning: "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes may face certain death."
It was an attempt to turn down the volume a bit. "But the horse was pretty much out of the barn by then," Mr. Hafele said.
When Galveston Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas repeated "certain death" for the TV cameras, people got the message, Mr. Jowett said.
Paradoxically, research on fear warnings shows that they may cause stubborn people to dig in their feet. That describes some of the folks who call themselves BOIs -- Born on the Island -- who decided to ride Ike out, Mr. Jowett said.
But more people will probably pay attention next time, he said.
"Almost every interview I have seen since the event of a survivor said `I`ll never do it again. I thought I was going to die,` " Mr. Jowett said.
WARNINGS
Examples of standard warning language that National Weather Service forecasters can use if conditions are dire enough:
-- "This is a dangerous storm. Move into an interior room away from windows and outer walls. Cover your head and body with pillows or blankets. "
-- "The majority of industrial buildings will become nonfunctional; partial to complete wall and roof damage is likely. All wood framed low rising apartment buildings will be destroyed. Concrete block low rise apartments will show major damage, including some wall and roof failure."
-- "Sport utility vehicles and light trucks will be moved or tossed. Needless to say, the blown debris will create additional destruction. Persons and pets caught outdoors will face certain death if struck."
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