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WeatherBug Forecasts Active 2010 Hurricane Season

April 15, 2010

By WeatherBug Sr. Meteorologist, James West

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The 2010 Hurricane Season will be an active one in the Atlantic, with above-average tropical storm and hurricane formation likely, says WeatherBug forecasters.

Driven by a weakening and fading El Nino, warm Atlantic Ocean water temperatures and a multi-decadal trend in higher Atlantic hurricane development, the WeatherBug forecasters call for 12 to 17 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and three to four major, Category 3 and higher hurricanes. This is significantly higher than the long-term average of 10 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. The Atlantic Hurricane basin includes the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

El Nino and the shear it produces in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean caused the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season to be below-average. This abnormal and periodic warming of the tropical Pacific is cooling after peaking this past winter. By the height of the hurricane season, it is expected to have faded and neutral or even weak La Nina conditions will be possible.

"There is uncertainty in the models on how quickly El Nino will weaken and potentially transition to a La Nina. A faster than expected transition to a neutral or La Nina phase would lean our storm forecast toward the higher part of the range, while slower would contribute to the opposite effect," says Mark Hoekzema, WeatherBug`s Chief Meteorologist and Director of Meteorological Operations. "Our forecast trends are indicating favorable conditions in the Atlantic for hurricane developments in the late summer and early fall."

The WeatherBug 2010 Atlantic hurricane outlook was presented Thursday, April 15, 2010, at an energy trader seminar in Houston.

Be sure to keep WeatherBug active to receive the latest weather in your neighborhood and the latest on the upcoming Atlantic hurricane Season. Get the latest updates anywhere on Twitter at WeatherBug WeatherBuzz.

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